Volcanologists compare measurements with each volcano’s background behaviour. Earthquakes, ground movement, and gas changes can indicate unrest. Scientists combine signals and eruption history to make forecasts with uncertainty. Unrest can stop without eruption. Even several changing measurements do not supply a guaranteed eruption time. Safety: Paper-only fictional data. Not an eruption prediction or official risk assessment. Stop: Stop after the fictional evidence review. No real-volcano monitoring, gas collection, travel, or alert decisions.

Materials: Paper; Pencil; Ruler 1. Copy this illustrative record for fictional Mount Paper. Columns Day, small earthquakes counted, ground uplift relative to day 1 in mm, gas index: Day 1: 2,0,10; Day 2: 3,1,11; Day 3: 12,4,18; Day 4: 15,7,20. The gas index is an invented comparison number, not a gas concentration or danger threshold. 2. Underline each day-4 value and circle its day-1 comparison. Draw a rising arrow in each measurement column. Write one evidence sentence for each instrument type: seismic, ground movement, and gas. 3. Choose between these fictional statements: A The volcano will erupt tomorrow at noon. B Several signals changed, so more expert assessment and monitoring are justified; an eruption is possible but not certain. Copy your choice and explain using two record details. 4. Add two branches after day 4: unrest decreases without eruption; eruption occurs after further changes. Write one missing information item, such as longer background records, instrument checks, or previous eruption patterns. Do not assign a public alert level. Done: A four-row table, three evidence sentences, a justified choice, and two outcome branches with missing information are complete. Proof: Keep the record and forecast wording. Note help reading values, selecting evidence, or composing the uncertainty statement. Stop: Stop after the fictional evidence review. No real-volcano monitoring, gas collection, travel, or alert decisions.