Correlation means two quantities vary together. Causation means a change helps produce another change. A shared cause can make two quantities rise together. A pattern alone cannot choose between these explanations. Safety: Paper analysis only; no personal records, dietary changes or water activity. Stop: End after one additional-data proposal. Do not survey children or run food, health or swimming experiments.

Materials: Paper and pencil; Two colouring pencils 1. Copy this illustrative, invented table: Day | Weather | Ice creams sold | People swimming. A | cool | 10 | 5. B | mild | 20 | 15. C | warm | 40 | 35. D | hot | 60 | 55. These are not real sales or swimming records. 2. Use two colours to mark how ice-cream sales and swimmer counts change across the rows. Write the pattern in words; you do not need a correlation coefficient. 3. Consider the claim Buying ice cream causes people to swim. Draw that proposed arrow. Then draw another explanation: warmer weather → more ice-cream buying; warmer weather → more swimming. Explain why the table fits both rising quantities without proving the first arrow. 4. Write one additional record that could help, such as comparing days with similar weather but different sales. Say why recording only more hot days would not remove the shared-weather explanation. 5. Finish two sentences: The table shows __. The table does not show __. Explain why deliberately changing children’s swimming or food intake is not an appropriate family test of this claim. Done: The learner describes the pattern, offers a shared-cause alternative and limits the causal claim. Proof: Keep the table, arrows and two conclusion sentences. Note supplied-explanation or adult reading support. Stop: End after one additional-data proposal. Do not survey children or run food, health or swimming experiments.