Experimental vs Theoretical
Run repeated probability experiments and compare experimental (relative frequency) results with theoretical predictions; understand and demonstrate that as the number of trials increases, the experimental probability tends towards the theoretical probability — and that short runs can give very different results
Lesson
Set out your lesson
“Experimental vs Theoretical means practising the idea at the table with counters or paper models and one clear check. We will demo once, then your child tries.”
Bring to the table
- Tally sheet or simple bar sketch
- A short set of category counts
Extra for the adult
Worked example. Cats 4, dogs 2 — cats have more. The tally and comparison are the proof.
Optional challenge. For Experimental vs Theoretical, add one harder example after success.
What to notice. Keep one parent note: examples tried; results; support used. This session samples Experimental vs Theoretical, not mastery.
Share and support
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Teaching approaches
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1 approach
Experimental vs Theoretical means practising the idea at the table with counters or paper models and one clear check. We will demo once, then your child tries.
Materials: Tally sheet or simple bar sketch; A short set of category counts. Adult tallies one category and sketches a bar. Child tallies three categories and answers one comparison question. Done: three tallies plus one correct comparison. Stop after the fresh check; keep optional challenge for another day.
Family records and proof options
Keep a record of your learning
Save photos, notes, and attendance. Export a proof packet for compliance or portfolio reviews.
Practice this concept
Start practiceExperimental vs Theoretical practice
Practice key ideas from Experimental vs Theoretical.
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Learning resources
Extra practice links — they do not replace Gakuva’s teaching approach.
PhET Interactive Simulations · Practice link — not the full lesson
Plinko Probability
Before you open · source notes
Plinko Probability supports hands-on exploration for Experimental vs Theoretical. Not every lab worksheet.
Free interactive page, no sign-in required for the tested path.
Before you openAsk the learner what they changed in the sim or page and what they observed.
Opening this link does not save learning or assess mastery.
Source, access and review notes
Public PhET Interactive Simulations page. An anonymous GET on 2026-11-12 returned HTTP 200 with no login or payment prompt for this URL. Opening the link does not save practice or assess mastery. An adult should preview and guide the learner.
PhET Interactive Simulations. “Plinko Probability.” External page; Gakuva does not copy, host, embed, or redistribute materials.
Unknown — link only
Check understanding
- Roll a die 60 times and compare experimental frequencies with the expected 10 per number
- Explain why experimental results don't exactly match theoretical predictions but get closer with more trials
- Predict what would happen if the experiment were repeated 600 times instead of 60, and check the prediction with a digital simulation of many more trials
“If your child flips a coin 10 times and gets 7 heads, do they understand why this doesn't mean heads is "more likely" — and that the more times you flip, the closer the results get to 50:50?”
Curriculum record
- Type
- Procedural
- Subject
- Mathematics
- Domain
- Probability
- Age range
- Ages 9–13
Standards