Hurricanes draw energy from warm ocean water; condensation releases latent heat around a low-pressure circulation. Wind shear also matters. Many strong tornadoes form within rotating supercells, but most supercells do not produce one. Monsoons are seasonal circulation changes. Attribution compares model climates to estimate a human influence, with uncertainty. Safety: Classroom-only mechanisms, not emergency advice. No distressing disaster images or real hazard exposure. Stop: Stop at the fictional comparison. No weather watching, vortex bottles, live forecasts, drills, or attribution of a named current storm.

Materials: Paper; Pencil; Ruler 1. Copy three cards: Hurricane: warm ocean → moist rising air → condensation releases heat → organised low-pressure spiral, if conditions allow. Supercell tornado: wind shear helps rotation → updraft rotates → a near-ground vortex may develop. Monsoon: seasonal land/sea heating contrast → pressure and wind changes → moist onshore flow can bring seasonal rain. 2. Draw one arrow sketch for each card. Add a limit to each: warm water alone is insufficient; rotation does not guarantee a tornado; monsoon timing and rain vary by region. These are explanatory models, not forecasts. 3. Copy this illustrative attribution experiment: 1000 model seasons with present human influence produce 60 events above a fixed rainfall threshold; 1000 comparable seasons without human influence produce 20. Count the rates and compare them. Both model sets use the same region, season definition, and threshold. 4. Write what the probability comparison supports and what it does not. Explain why this example is about likelihood of threshold rainfall, not a claim that wind speed tripled or a tornado was caused solely by climate change. 5. Add two checks scientists would need: whether models reproduce relevant observed processes, and how sampling/model uncertainty affects results. Name a possible limit from sparse historical storm observations. Done: Three mechanism cards with limits, three sketches, both model rates, and a bounded attribution interpretation with two checks are complete. Proof: Keep the mechanism sheet and calculation. Note help with division, percentages, storm terms or uncertainty. Stop: Stop at the fictional comparison. No weather watching, vortex bottles, live forecasts, drills, or attribution of a named current storm.