Ordering Likelihoods
Compare the likelihood of different events and order them from least to most likely — including situations with unequal outcomes such as a bag with more of one colour than another, or a spinner with sections of different sizes — and explain reasoning using informal language
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Ordering Likelihoods means practising the idea at the table with counters or paper models and one clear check. We will demo once, then your child tries.
Materials: Counters or paper models for the idea; Pencil for recording. Adult models one concrete example of the idea. Child completes three concrete examples and says a reason each time. Done: three correct examples with a spoken reason each. Stop after the fresh check; keep optional challenge for another day.
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Start practiceOrdering Likelihoods practice
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Learning resources
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PhET Interactive Simulations · Practice link — not the full lesson
Plinko Probability
Before you open · source notes
Plinko Probability supports hands-on exploration for Ordering Likelihoods. Not every lab worksheet.
Free interactive page, no sign-in required for the tested path.
Before you openAsk the learner what they changed in the sim or page and what they observed.
Opening this link does not save learning or assess mastery.
Source, access and review notes
Public PhET Interactive Simulations page. An anonymous GET on 2026-11-12 returned HTTP 200 with no login or payment prompt for this URL. Opening the link does not save practice or assess mastery. An adult should preview and guide the learner.
PhET Interactive Simulations. “Plinko Probability.” External page; Gakuva does not copy, host, embed, or redistribute materials.
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Check understanding
- Order four or more events from least likely to most likely and justify each placement
- Compare likelihoods when outcomes are not equally likely — e.g. 'Drawing red from a bag with 7 red and 3 blue is more likely than drawing blue'
- Explain why some events are closer to 'even chance' and others are closer to 'certain' or 'impossible'
“If a bag has 8 red counters and 2 blue ones, does your child understand that picking red is much more likely than picking blue — and can they put different events in order from least to most likely?”
Curriculum record
- Type
- Conceptual
- Subject
- Mathematics
- Domain
- Probability
- Age range
- Ages 8–12
Standards